Great analysis. The point about AI creating unequal gains really nails the moment we're in because automation is advancing way faster than policy frameworks can absorb it. When workers get displaced but the benefits concentrate at the top, thats a recipe for serious backlash. I've seen this tension play out in my own community where new tech brings efficency but also uncertainty about who really benefits long-term. The coalition around AI skepticism might end up being one of the more interesting cross-ideological alliances we see in 26.
Corruption super PACs money influence will be plaguing elections but most people are understanding this detriment to democracy and will take action to mitigate this
Based on the past failure of leaders and groups opposed to Trump to predict, prepare and respond, my first prediction is that local groups and new leaders will fill the gap. Momdani is evidence of the gap. Other leaders do not have to precisely model policies after Momdani, they can learn general theme. I predict some will.
A second prediction is that grassroots groups and leaders will push federal and state candidates to be more courageous and outspoken.
The Third prediction is sobering. Trump/MAGA will fill the cracks in their coalitions with concrete. While Dem's and others hope the cracks will widen, those in power will not stand idly by. While opposition leaders celebrate embarrassments or even some victories, Trump still destroys.
The efforts to influence 2026 is taking place in plain sight. My prediction or hope is that leaders become vocal and strategic.
Your piece was inspirational. I just want to add two omissions that work wonders on our political system: the complete elimination of the NRA. Does a country that boasts more deaths by fire arms than any other on earth really need an organization that a political party depends on for wealthy donors and donors who want to be on the good side of a candidate regardless of whether they’re good for the country as a whole or not?
Secondly, the Electoral College needs abolishing and should have been when it became clear it carried more weight than the popular vote, the vote of the people. Ridiculous!!!!!Let’s see how smoothly things run without either one.
1). The Supreme court willl likely overturn the Reciprocal Tariffs and because the cases were brought by small businesses who actually WERE harmed by them, the Court willbe compelled to require that reciprocal tariff revenues be reimbursed. All tariff paymentd were made directly to CBP by importers of record and can easily be tracked and reversed. It will bring chaos to all the "paper deals" Trump calims to have negotiated for investment in new factories in USA. Cost of tariffs will take a full year to work their way thru economy if left in place- rising costs of goods translates into rising costs for retail and other service sectors too!
2). Deportations of est. 2 million immigrants (and fear of deportation causing millions more to not show up for work) will decimate the agriculture/hospitality, and construction industries, tighten an already-tight labor market, and bring major infrastructure, new home and factory/data center construction delays and cost increases.
It all sounds possible but we cannot assume that mid terms will take place. They had better take place but this personalist rule regime is in the process of consolidating unchecked power and has been fairly successful thus far. They are looking to create a crisis (autocratic playbook) to avoid the election and or rig the election to ensure the Republicans stay in power.
Expect the unexpected!
Great analysis. The point about AI creating unequal gains really nails the moment we're in because automation is advancing way faster than policy frameworks can absorb it. When workers get displaced but the benefits concentrate at the top, thats a recipe for serious backlash. I've seen this tension play out in my own community where new tech brings efficency but also uncertainty about who really benefits long-term. The coalition around AI skepticism might end up being one of the more interesting cross-ideological alliances we see in 26.
Corruption super PACs money influence will be plaguing elections but most people are understanding this detriment to democracy and will take action to mitigate this
Based on the past failure of leaders and groups opposed to Trump to predict, prepare and respond, my first prediction is that local groups and new leaders will fill the gap. Momdani is evidence of the gap. Other leaders do not have to precisely model policies after Momdani, they can learn general theme. I predict some will.
A second prediction is that grassroots groups and leaders will push federal and state candidates to be more courageous and outspoken.
The Third prediction is sobering. Trump/MAGA will fill the cracks in their coalitions with concrete. While Dem's and others hope the cracks will widen, those in power will not stand idly by. While opposition leaders celebrate embarrassments or even some victories, Trump still destroys.
The efforts to influence 2026 is taking place in plain sight. My prediction or hope is that leaders become vocal and strategic.
Your piece was inspirational. I just want to add two omissions that work wonders on our political system: the complete elimination of the NRA. Does a country that boasts more deaths by fire arms than any other on earth really need an organization that a political party depends on for wealthy donors and donors who want to be on the good side of a candidate regardless of whether they’re good for the country as a whole or not?
Secondly, the Electoral College needs abolishing and should have been when it became clear it carried more weight than the popular vote, the vote of the people. Ridiculous!!!!!Let’s see how smoothly things run without either one.
1). The Supreme court willl likely overturn the Reciprocal Tariffs and because the cases were brought by small businesses who actually WERE harmed by them, the Court willbe compelled to require that reciprocal tariff revenues be reimbursed. All tariff paymentd were made directly to CBP by importers of record and can easily be tracked and reversed. It will bring chaos to all the "paper deals" Trump calims to have negotiated for investment in new factories in USA. Cost of tariffs will take a full year to work their way thru economy if left in place- rising costs of goods translates into rising costs for retail and other service sectors too!
2). Deportations of est. 2 million immigrants (and fear of deportation causing millions more to not show up for work) will decimate the agriculture/hospitality, and construction industries, tighten an already-tight labor market, and bring major infrastructure, new home and factory/data center construction delays and cost increases.
You have a brighter outlook than I.
That's what we're here for.
It all sounds possible but we cannot assume that mid terms will take place. They had better take place but this personalist rule regime is in the process of consolidating unchecked power and has been fairly successful thus far. They are looking to create a crisis (autocratic playbook) to avoid the election and or rig the election to ensure the Republicans stay in power.