Billionaires, Autocrats, and the Meaning of Musk vs. Trump

When autocrats threaten billionaires, pay close attention — it's about all of us.

BY TRYGVE OLSON

I’ve been in rooms with men like Donald Trump, and I’ve worked in countries run by men like him. The names and currencies may be different — rubles, forints, dollars, crypto — but the power games are the same.

This spat between Trump and Elon Musk? It’s not just an ego clash. It’s a warning sign. And if you’ve worked with opposition leaders under autocrats the way I have — in Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia — you learn to read those signs.

Let me walk you through it.

1. This Isn't About Musk. It's About Trump Testing Power

Trump doesn’t do “disagreements.” He does dominance. Always has. Always will. Whether it’s Jeff Sessions, Ron DeSantis, or Elon Musk, if you don’t submit, he turns on you. It’s not personal — it’s structural. Trump’s worldview is zero-sum. You’re either for him, or you’re the enemy.

Elon Musk, in this case, signaled he might support third-party candidates or even Democrats with his money. That’s not just inconvenient for Trump — that’s betrayal. And betrayal, in the autocrat’s playbook, must be punished.

Trump went straight to the threat: He’s going to be ‘on our side’ because otherwise he’ll be under investigation. Not subtle. Not new. It’s the same script Viktor Orbán uses on Hungarian oligarchs. The same tactics Lukashenko used to force loyalty from business leaders when I was helping the democratic opposition in Belarus.

2. Autocrats Need Billionaires. But Only the Obedient Kind.

In every autocratic system, wealth is allowed — even encouraged — as long as it’s subordinate to power. Russia’s oligarchs could have their yachts, their mansions, their soccer teams. But they knew the price: public loyalty, private tribute, and silence when told.

That’s the game Trump is trying to reestablish in America. He’s not against elites. He wants to make sure he owns them.

When Musk tweets about independent thinking or libertarian ideals while also trying to appease Trump’s movement, it doesn’t make him brave. It makes him a high-risk player in a game he doesn’t fully understand. You can’t buy your way out of authoritarianism once it takes hold.

3. Democracy Is Still Win-Win. But Only If We Act Like It.

Here’s the real point: This feud is a distraction — but not a meaningless one. It tells us what kind of moment we’re living in. Trump is back to flexing unchecked power. He believes he can intimidate Elon Musk — the richest man in the world — into obedience.

If he thinks that, imagine what he thinks he can do to regular people.

What happens when you intimidate someone into not funding a Democrat? Or scare them away from third-party exploration? Or just make them too nervous to write a check?

That’s not politics. That’s autocratic intent.

And here’s the lesson for all of us — especially for those who still think politics is about tax ratesand policy papers: When autocrats show you who they are, believe them. And when they show you how they plan to use power, take it seriously.

Because the real threat isn’t that Trump might alienate Elon Musk.

The real threat is that no one stops him.

We’ve seen this before. In Belarus, it started with business licenses revoked for dissenters. In Hungary, it was advertising revenue steered away from critical outlets. In Russia, well... the trail ends in exile or worse. Every step was called “bluster” or “rhetoric” until it was policy and law.

So here’s how we win:

• Call the game what it is. This isn’t a political debate. It’s a power play. Treat it like one.

• Don’t confuse wealth with safety. If Elon Musk can be targeted, so can you. So speak now.

• Remember: democracy is win-win. Autocracy is zero-sum. You either fight side-by-side today, or you lose the right to disagree tomorrow.

Elon Musk may think he’s playing chess.

But Trump’s playing chicken. With American democracy.

And we’re all in the back seat.

Trygve Olson is a political strategist and democracy advocate. He has advised opposition leaders in over 40 countries and now works to protect democracy in the United States. He writes daily on Substack under Searching for Hope.