People keep asking me who wins in November
I'm spending my time on a harder question - will we all believe the answer?
During the 2024 election, Donald Trump made two promises that people remember: 1) prices would come down, and 2) he would keep us out of war. And now, it’s time for voters to grade him on both.
Groceries, rent, insurance, and the electric bill have not gotten easier for anyone I know, and the country has spent this year watching military commitments grow rather than wind down. When a party is failing at the kitchen table and on questions of war and peace at the same time, midterm elections tend to become waves, and that is what I expect this one to be.
And while I do feel quite strongly about who I hope will win in November, I also know an ever more important thing is us finding our way back to all Americans being able to look at the result — disappointed or not — and believe it was free and fair.
But an expectation of a massive electoral shift is worth precisely nothing if the machinery that turns votes into results gets jammed, and there are a great many people working, at this very moment, to jam it.
That is why I’m so focused on the work of our strategic litigation partner Campaign Legal Center, which is at the forefront of the most important work we can be doing to preserve democracy.
While there’s plenty to worry about, I hope the vigilance of those in our election protection litigation community give you some comfort and hope that we can and will get through this:
“What if DOJ seizes ballots or voting machines?”
This is not a hypothetical, since we have already watched a version of it play out in Fulton County.
The pressure point, though, is smaller than most people realize. A federal seizure requires a magistrate judge’s signature on a warrant, often with no public notice and very little time for reflection, which is why legal teams are putting briefing materials in front of magistrate judges now, so that a legally thin or politically motivated application will meet real scrutiny rather than a rubber stamp.
Running beneath all of this is DOJ’s effort to build a national voter database, a tool that could be used to force purges on the basis of sloppy name matches and to manufacture doubt about the count after the fact. Multiple lawsuits have been brought against both of Trump's election executive orders, and CLC has been central to that fight, winning rulings that struck down the proof-of-citizenship requirement and the provision targeting military and overseas voters, and pressing a pending challenge to the 2026 order's national citizen database and mail-ballot restrictions.
I would add that the record on this front is considerably better than the anxiety suggests. Core provisions of both anti-voting executive orders have been blocked, and DOJ now stands at 0 for 22 in its lawsuits demanding that states hand over their voter rolls. Those twenty-two victories did not simply happen. Wins like these are only possible because somebody filed, somebody argued, and somebody paid for it, and that somebody is people like you and me!
“What if federal agents show up at my polling place?”
Because speed is everything here, our partners have shell pleadings drafted and ready to file immediately, whether the trigger is ICE at a polling site or a surge of federal agents into a competitive district under the banner of immigration enforcement.
There is a second track that I find encouraging. A growing number of states have adopted legislation allowing ordinary people to sue federal officials who violate their constitutional rights. The New York Times called it “a law that might just save the midterms.” An agent who knows he can be held personally liable behaves rather differently than one who assumes the badge covers everything.
The drill you hope you never run
None of this guarantees a calm November, but I would ask you to notice what all of it has in common: Preparation. And while being well-prepared is neither glamorous nor cheap, it is exactly what needs to be done. That’s why your support is so important right now.
Three things you can do this week
Fuel the legal work. Every filing and every state guide costs money, and Bright America members are the reason it gets funded.
Call your legislators. Ask them where they stand on protecting election officials from federal interference. Names, numbers, and our calling guide are here.
Send this to one person who is anxious about November, ideally someone who doesn’t vote the way you do, because the result has to be believable to all of us.